
Clinical Cancer Research Vol. 10, 6310S-6314S, September 15, 2004
© 2004 American Association for Cancer Research
Proceedings of the First International Conference |
Prognostic Factors in Patients with Advanced Renal Cell Carcinoma
Development of an International Kidney Cancer Working Group
Ronald M. Bukowski1,
Sylvie Negrier2 and
Paul Elson1
1 Taussig Cancer Center, The Cleveland Clinic Foundation, Cleveland, Ohio; and 2 Centre Leon Berard, Lyon, France
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ABSTRACT
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The identification of prognostic factors in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma represents an area of increasing interest. Multiple publications identifying pertinent clinical and laboratory variables have appeared since 1986. The current study of 353 patients with advanced disease treated at The Cleveland Clinic from 1987 to 2002 was conducted to additionally assess and validate a model proposed recently by investigators from Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center. The data presented are similar to those reported previously, which demonstrated that patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma can be categorized into good-, intermediate-, and poor-risk groups, using readily available clinical factors. Additionally, comparability of patients in this database to a group treated recently in France was assessed. These two groups appear similar in their distribution of various clinical factors and survival. Finally, a group of international investigators has been developed to provide a comprehensive database of >4,000 patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma to provide and validate a single model that can be used to predict survival. This project is now under way.
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INTRODUCTION
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In the United States, renal cell carcinoma accounts for 2.5% of cancer incidence and 2% of cancer mortality (1)
. Recent epidemiologic studies suggest that the incidence of all stages of renal cell carcinoma is increasing (2)
. More than 30,000 new cases of renal cell carcinoma will be diagnosed in the United States in 2004 (3)
. Renal cell carcinoma is a surgical disease if detected early, and 4-year survival rates for patients with disease confined to the kidney (stages T1 and T2) is
90% to 95% (4
, 5)
. Once metastatic disease develops, the prognosis for long-term survival is poor, with 5-year survival ranging from 0% to 20% (3
, 4
, 6)
. Unfortunately, approximately one third of patients have metastatic disease at the time of diagnosis, and 50% of patients undergoing curative surgery can be expected to experience relapse at distant sites (4
, 5)
. Coupled with the lack of effective systemic therapy and the highly variable natural history, the poor outlook for patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma highlights the need to define patient and disease factors that are associated with outcome. Identification of a reliable set of prognostic factors in patients with metastatic disease would provide an important tool to help optimize patient selection for specific treatment strategies. This will also assist the interpretation of clinical trials by providing information on how therapy is affecting the natural history of the disease.
Reports in the literature vary with respect to the identification of patient and disease characteristics that are prognostic for survival in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma (7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13)
. Although some factors have consistently been found to be of value (e.g., performance status), the previous reports have evaluated different factors and used variable definitions of some factors, such as metastatic-free interval.
A historical perspective of this area indicates that the first report addressing this issue appeared in 1986 (14)
. The authors at that time noted that factors predicting outcome for patients with metastatic disease included performance status, the presence of pulmonary metastases, and the metastatic-free interval. Subsequently, several reports appeared in 1988 (7
, 8)
that reviewed the same issue. In 1988, Elson et al. (7)
published an analysis of 670 patients who had been treated with chemotherapy. The features that were associated with survival in a multivariate analysis included Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (0 to 1 versus 2 to 3), time from initial diagnosis (>1 year versus
1 year), number of metastatic sites, prior cytotoxic chemotherapy, and recent weight loss. Additional analyses have appeared recently, and multiple reports analyzing prognostic factors in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma have been published (15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22)
. In these reports, no factor independently predicted survival. When reviewed as a whole, the same factors were not evaluated by all of the investigators, several issues with regard to coding of factors among studies are present, definitions have sometimes varied, and the population of patients treated has sometimes been different. This latter factor may be relevant, because patients who have received extensive prior therapy may have a different prognosis from those who are untreated. Additionally, patients who were treated before 1990 in the era before cytokines were used routinely and those receiving cytokine-based therapy after 1990 may have different outcomes (13)
.
Table 1
outlines some of the prognostic factors that have been examined in patients with renal cell carcinoma. These factors include demographic variables, the type of prior therapy, characteristics of the primary tumor, various immunologic factors, disease factors such as site and disease-free intervals, various biochemical parameters, and, more recently, molecular markers.
When the database of prognostic factors in patients with renal cell carcinoma is examined, it is clear that additional studies in this area would be helpful. The primary goals of our group at The Cleveland Clinic Taussig Cancer Center and the International Kidney Cancer Working Group project were to evaluate our database with regard to prognostic factors and then to confirm whether it could be used to validate a model proposed by Motzer et al. (12
, 13)
In addition, the International Kidney Cancer Working Group is establishing a comprehensive database from centers that treat patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma. This will be used to develop a set of prognostic factors in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma and ultimately to derive a single validated model. Additionally, the database as constructed could serve as a resource to study the natural history of this illness and aid in design and analysis of clinical trials for patients with renal cell carcinoma.
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MATERIALS AND METHODS
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The records of patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma who were enrolled in clinical trials at The Cleveland Clinic Foundation between 1987 and April 2002 were reviewed. These trials consisted primarily of biological response modifiers (Phase I and II trials) as single agents or as combination therapies. Criteria were relatively uniform and included histologic documentation of renal cancer; clinical or biopsy evidence of metastatic disease; bidimensionally measurable disease; Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status
1; normal renal, hepatic, and bone marrow function; absence or stable central nervous system metastases; no prior history of cancer; absence of significant cardiac disease; and no recent surgery. Data collected included standard pretreatment patient and disease characteristics, baseline biochemical parameters, best response to treatment, date of first treatment, date of progression, date of death, and last follow-up. Response and progression were defined by standard criteria, and survival was defined from the time from initiation of first treatment to the date of death or last follow-up. The statistical methods used included the log rank test for univariable survival and the Cox proportional hazards for multivariable survival comparisons. Previous reports in the literature and recursive partitioning were used to define cut points for continuous variables, such as age, time from diagnosis, and various biochemical and hematologic parameters.
For the International Kidney Cancer Working Group project, a group of investigators was convened in Lyon, France, in October 2002. The purpose of this meeting, which was supported by the Kidney Cancer Association, was to develop an international consortium of investigators and institutions that have an interest in and treat patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma. The development of a database containing information on prognostic factors reported previously was initiated. Collection of data on >4,000 previously untreated patients is planned. The data will be analyzed to identify independent, validated predictors of survival. Initially as part of this project, two databases were examined to determine the comparability of patient populations with metastatic renal cell carcinoma in France and the United States. This involved examination of 782 patients treated by the Groupe Francais dImmunotherapie (23)
and 353 patients treated at The Cleveland Clinic (24)
. These data were examined for baseline characteristics and comparability of survival.
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RESULTS
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Three hundred fifty-three patients at The Cleveland Clinic with no prior history of treatment with systemic therapy and who were treated in approved clinical trials between April 1987 and April 2002 were identified. The variables examined are listed in Table 2
. The factors that had an effect on survival in this univariable analysis are also listed. In Table 3
, the overall survival of the 353 patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma is summarized. Additionally, the influence of time of study entry and sex is examined. The complete details of this analysis are the subject of another publication.3
A total of 309 patients had information available on the five prognostic factors included in the model of Motzer et al. (13)
The median survival of these 309 patients was 14.7 months. Eighty-one percent of patients had died by the time of analysis, and 19% were still alive or lost to follow-up. To validate the model described by Motzer et al. (13)
, a stepwise, stratified Cox proportional hazards model, which considered the categorical forms of the factors identified, was used. Histologic or nuclear grade was not considered due to the large proportion of patients missing this type of information. Prior nephrectomy was also not considered because of its correlation with time from diagnosis to entry on study. The results of this analysis are outlined in Table 3
and Fig. 1
. Using these definitions for the three groups, 19% had no poor prognostic factors and were categorized as favorable risk, 70% had 1 to 2 poor prognostic factors and were, therefore, considered intermediate risk, and 11% were categorized as poor risk. Median survivals for these groups were 28.6, 14.6, and 4.5 months, respectively (P < 0.0001). These data are similar to those reported previously (13)
in which 18% of 437 patients analyzed were favorable risk, 62% were intermediate risk, and 20% were poor risk. The survival of these three groups was 29.6, 13.8, and 4.9 months, respectively.

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Fig. 1. Survival curves for 309 patients with metastatic untreated renal cell carcinoma divided into three groups (low risk, intermediate risk, and high risk) using the prognostic factor criteria published previously by Motzer et al. (13)
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Therefore, the database from The Cleveland Clinic can be used to validate an existing prognostic model. Additional analyses have been performed on these data, and identification of other relevant prognostic factors is planned.3
As part of the International Kidney Cancer Working Group project, preliminary studies were then performed to determine the availability of a database that could be used for the planned analysis of prognostic factors. Initially, the databases from Negrier et al. (23)
and The Cleveland Clinic were analyzed to determine their comparability. Tables 4
and 5
present these data. The distribution of patient factors appears similar between the two groups. The comparability of the survival curves is illustrated in Fig. 2
. The curves appear identical and demonstrate the similarities of these two patient populations. This suggests that use of an international database would be a reasonable approach to identify prognostic factors and validate a model for patients with this disease.

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Fig. 2. Survival curves of two groups of patients with untreated renal cell carcinoma: 353 patients treated at The Cleveland Clinic from 1987 to 2002 and 782 patients treated by the Groupe Francais dImmunotherapie (23)
.
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At a meeting in Lyon, France, a group of investigators was convened to determine the availability of databases for this purpose. Table 6
outlines the International Kidney Cancer Working Group and the participants. It is estimated that >4,000 patients with no prior therapy will be available for inclusion in this database. A group of statisticians (P. Elson, The Cleveland Clinic Center, Cleveland, OH; J. Manola, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, MA; and M. Mazumdar, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY) has been appointed to oversee the development, population, and administration of this database. Data collection is in progress.
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DISCUSSION
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The identification of prognostic factors that predict survival for patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma has been undertaken by a variety of groups. Using data from The Cleveland Clinic (24)
, we have demonstrated the validity of the model proposed by Motzer et al. (13)
Patients with this disease can be separated into good-, intermediate-, and poor-risk groups based on factors identified previously. Different median survivals for these groups are found. Use of this model to identify patients for various trials is now under way. One study with CCI-779 has targeted the poor-risk group identified by Motzer et al. (13)
as the population to treat with interferon
, CCI-779, or the combination. In a Cleveland Clinic trial that used interleukin 2 and thalidomide (25)
, this same model has been used to select renal cell carcinoma patients characterized by good and intermediate survival patterns. These studies are for patients with no prior systemic therapy, a population similar to that analyzed in the various publications (12
, 13)
. In clinical trials that target previously treated patients, development of a separate and valid model is required.
Refining this model and determining additional risk groups using other independent prognostic factors have been undertaken. The International Kidney Cancer Working Group is now collecting data from >4,000 patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma for these purposes. This will provide a database to validate and construct a model to determine prognosis in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma. Introduction of other variables such as carbonic anhydrase IX expression, levels of T-lymphocyte apoptosis, and T-lymphocyte T-cell receptor
levels can also be used to additionally refine these approaches. The International Kidney Cancer Working Group project should provide the necessary sample of untreated patients from a variety of international locations to develop an acceptable model for renal cell carcinoma outcome in patients with metastatic disease.
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OPEN DISCUSSION
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Dr. James C. Yang: We all call things slightly differently. A clear cell tumor is not a clear cell tumor to all pathologists, and there has got to be a better way to identify a VHL mutated or inactivated tumor versus a non-VHL mutated or inactivated tumor.
Dr. Ronald M. Bukowski: What were trying to do is develop a model thats generally applicable across broad categories of institutions and that requires factors that are easily done and readily available. So often pathology and the molecular studies we are talking about are not available and will not be for a while, so this is our initial effort to develop at least a uniform model that can be applied across institutions and across countries.
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FOOTNOTES
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Presented at the First International Conference on Innovations and Challenges in Renal Cancer, March 1920, 2004, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Grant support: Kidney Cancer Association and the Zito Chair for Cancer Research.
Requests for reprints: Ronald M. Bukowski, Experimental Therapeutics Program, Cleveland Clinic Taussig Cancer Center, R35, The Cleveland Clinic Foundation, 9500 Euclid Avenue, Cleveland, OH 44195. Phone: 216-444-6825; Fax: 216-444-0114; E-mail: bukowsr{at}cc.ccf.org
3 Mekhail TM, Gawda RA, Abou Mari G, et al. Validation and extension of the Memorial Sloan Kettering Prognostic Factor Model for survival in patients with previously untreated metastatic renal cell carcinoma, manuscript in preparation. 
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