Purpose: Metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) is a heterogeneous disease for which better prognostic models for survival are needed. We examined the added value of circulating tumor cell (CTC) enumeration relative to common prognostic laboratory measures from patients with CRPC.
Methods: Utility of CTC enumeration as a baseline and postbaseline prognostic biomarker was examined using data from two prospective randomized registration-directed trials (COU-AA-301 and ELM-PC4) within statistical models used to estimate risk for survival. Discrimination and calibration were used to measure model predictive accuracy and the added value for CTC enumeration in the context of a Cox model containing albumin, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), PSA, hemoglobin, and alkaline phosphatase (ALK). Discrimination quantifies how accurately a risk model predicts short-term versus long-term survivors. Calibration measures the closeness of actual survival time to the predicted survival time.
Results: Adding CTC enumeration to a model containing albumin, LDH, PSA, hemoglobin, and ALK (“ALPHA”) improved its discriminatory power. The weighted c-index for ALPHA without CTCs was 0.72 (SE, 0.02) versus 0.75 (SE, 0.02) for ALPHA + CTCs. The increase in discrimination was restricted to the lower-risk cohort. In terms of calibration, adding CTCs produced a more accurate model-based prediction of patient survival. The absolute prediction error for ALPHA was 3.95 months (SE, 0.28) versus 3.75 months (SE, 0.22) for ALPHA + CTCs.
Conclusions: Addition of CTC enumeration to standard measures provides more accurate assessment of patient risk in terms of baseline and postbaseline prognosis in the mCRPC population. Clin Cancer Res; 23(8); 1967–73. ©2016 AACR.
- Received May 13, 2016.
- Revision received August 29, 2016.
- Accepted September 8, 2016.
- ©2016 American Association for Cancer Research.