Development and Validation of a Next-Generation Sequencing–Based Multigene Assay to Predict the Prognosis of Estrogen Receptor–Positive, HER2-Negative Breast Cancer

Purpose: Multigene assays provide useful prognostic information regarding hormone receptor (HR)-positive breast cancer. Next-generation sequencing (NGS)-based platforms have numerous advantages including reproducibility and adaptability in local laboratories. This study aimed to develop and validate an NGS-based multigene assay to predict the distant recurrence risk.

Experimental Design: In total, 179 genes including 30 reference genes highly correlated with the 21-gene recurrence score (RS) algorithm were selected from public databases. Targeted RNA-sequencing was performed using 250 and 93 archived breast cancer samples with a known RS in the training and verification sets, respectively, to develop the algorithm and NGS–Prognostic Score (NGS-PS). The assay was validated in 413 independent samples with long-term follow-up data on distant metastasis.

Results: In the verification set, the NGS-PS and 21-gene RS displayed 91.4% concurrence (85/93 samples). In the validation cohort of 413 samples, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve plotted using NGS-PS values classified for distant recurrence was 0.76. The best NGS-PS cut-off value predicting distant metastasis was 20. Furthermore, 269 and 144 patients were classified as low- and high-risk patients in accordance with the cut-off. Five- and 10-year estimates of distant metastasis–free survival (DMFS) for low- versus high-risk groups were 97.0% versus 77.8% and 93.2% versus 64.4%, respectively. The age-related HR for distant recurrence without chemotherapy was 9.73 (95% CI, 3.59–26.40) and 3.19 (95% CI, 1.40–7.29) for patients aged ≤50 and >50 years, respectively.

Conclusions: The newly developed and validated NGS-based multigene assay can predict the distant recurrence risk in ER-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer.