Table 4.

Cumulative incidence of PSA recurrence projected by the model and lower bound on the frequency of overdetection of recurrence

PSA recurrence within 5 yearsPSA recurrence within 5–10 years
CharacteristicsPercentage with PSA recurrenceLower bound on percent overdetectedPercentage with PSA recurrenceLower bound on percent overdetected
Overall13.3 (12.7–14.0)9.1 (7.6–10.6)5.7 (5.3–6.2)15.6 (12.7–18.5)
Age at diagnosis, y
 40–4911.2 (8.5–13.9)2.8 (0.1–5.5)4.7 (2.9–6.5)3.7 (0.2–7.2)
 50–5911.8 (10.8–12.8)4.9 (2.8–7.0)5.2 (4.4–5.9)9.1 (4.9–13.2)
 60–6914.0 (13.0–15.0)10.3 (8.1–12.6)6.1 (5.4–6.8)17.2 (12.8–21.6)
 ≥7017.1 (14.9–19.3)16.4 (11.2–21.6)6.2 (4.8–7.7)31.4 (20.6–42.2)
GS
 ≤610.3 (9.6–11.0)10.7 (8.5–12.9)4.8 (4.3–5.3)15.7 (11.9–19.4)
 718.5 (17.0–20.1)7.8 (5.2–10.3)7.3 (6.2–8.4)15.7 (10.6–20.9)
 ≥837.2 (32.7–41.7)5.1 (1.6–8.6)12.0 (8.9–15.1)14.9 (5.2–24.6)
PSA at diagnosis, ng/mL
 0–2.53.8 (2.4–5.3)9.7 (1.7–17.7)1.8 (0.8–2.8)13.8 (6.2–21.4)
 2.51–46.7 (5.2–8.2)8.8 (2.6–15.0)3.5 (2.4–4.6)12.3 (1.8–22.8)
 4.1–6.010.4 (9.5–11.4)8.6 (5.8–11.3)4.6 (4.0–5.2)15.5 (10.5–20.5)
 6.1–10.014.5 (13.3–15.8)9.0 (6.2–11.7)6.5 (5.6–7.5)15.5 (10.1–20.8)
 ≥1028.9 (26.6–31.3)9.8 (6.9–12.6)10.5 (9.0–12.1)17.0 (10.7–23.2)
Stage
 ≤T2a11.7 (11.0–12.4)9.5 (7.6–11.4)5.2 (4.7–5.7)15.4 (11.9–18.9)
 >T2a18.7 (17.2–20.3)8.2 (5.7–10.7)7.2 (6.2–8.2)16.2 (10.7–21.6)

NOTE: Other-cause death is generated by applying a HR of 0.4 to the standard life table.